The upstream raw materials of solar cells include crystalline silicon, EVA film, solar backboard and glass for solar cells.
In terms of polysilicon, China's polysilicon industry has started under the promotion of policies since 2005. It has gone through overcapacity, elimination and merger all the way, and the industry concentration has continued to improve. The production cost of some advanced enterprises has reached the world's leading level, and the product quality is mostly at the level of first-class solar energy products. According to the statistics of China photovoltaic Association, since 2012, China's polysilicon production has continued to grow. In 2019, the national polysilicon production reached 342000 tons, an increase of 32.05% year on year. By the end of 2019, there are 6 domestic enterprises with annual output of more than 10000 tons.
Figure 2: China's polysilicon production and growth rate in 2011-2019 (unit: 10000 tons,%)
Under the requirements of cost and quality, the backward small production capacity of less than 10000 tons in polysilicon market and the overseas high-cost old production capacity will be eliminated one after another, the leading enterprises will continue to increase production capacity with low cost, and the market share will continue to focus on the head enterprises.
By the end of 2018, the total nominal capacity of polysilicon in China was 353000 tons, and the effective capacity was about 297000 tons. The output of the top ten silicon material manufacturers in China accounts for 82.5%, with a high concentration. In 2019, domestic polysilicon manufacturers will enter the period of centralized production of new production capacity. It is estimated that by the end of 2019, domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach 527000 tons / year.
Figure 3: capacity / output of China's major polysilicon producers in 2018-2019 (unit: ton)
Multiple enterprises expand the capacity of single crystal silicon chip
In terms of silicon wafer production, China has an absolute advantage in the world, and domestic production accounts for more than 90% of the global production. Silicon wafer industry has strong scale effect and high industrial concentration. According to CPIA, the national silicon chip production in 2019 is about 134.6gw, up 25.7% year on year. Among them, monocrystalline silicon production accounts for about 65%. By the end of 2019, there are 9 enterprises with a production capacity of more than 2gw, accounting for 85.5% of the total output. The top 10 production enterprises in the world are all in China.
Figure 4: China's silicon wafer production and its growth rate (unit: GW,%) in 2011-2019
In 2019, there will be about 36gw of silicon wafer expansion in China, most of which will be the expansion of monocrystalline silicon wafer production. Some monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity expansion will be monocrystalline silicon wafer production enterprises. China's chip specific production capacity distribution mainly includes GCL, Longji, Zhonghuan and Jingke.
Figure 5: China's silicon wafer production and growth rate (unit: GW,%) in 2011-2019