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Analysis of market scale and competition pattern of solar cell in 2020

2020-06-10

Photovoltaic industry refers to the production of solar cells from silicon materials through various technologies and processes, and the encapsulation and protection of solar cells after series and parallel connection to form a large area of solar cell modules, and then cooperate with power controllers to form the industrial chain of photovoltaic power generation devices. According to different semiconductor materials, solar cells can be divided into crystalline silicon solar cells and thin film solar cells. Crystalline silicon battery is the first generation of solar cell technology that has been researched and applied first. According to the shape of materials, it can be divided into monocrystalline silicon battery and polycrystalline silicon battery. Monocrystalline silicon battery can be divided into p-type battery and n-type battery according to the different doping of silicon substrate. At present, the most widely used single crystal perc battery is p-type single crystal silicon battery, while TOPCON, heterojunction, IBC and other new solar cell technologies mainly refer to n-type single crystal silicon battery. In the solar cell market, polycrystalline silicon economic layer once led the single crystal. However, from 2015 to 2016, the single crystal manufacturers led by Longji achieved a technological breakthrough, greatly reducing the cost of single crystal silicon chips. Due to the higher conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon battery, the cost of single watt corresponding to monocrystalline silicon wafer has been inverted, which is lower than polycrystalline. Later, the high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon battery represented by perc battery has emerged, which further promotes the substitution of monocrystalline silicon for polycrystalline silicon, and the proportion of thin-film solar energy has also decreased year by year. The decrease of silicon cost mainly depends on the decrease of battery chip cost and price. Since 2016, with the reversal of the market share of monocrystal and polycrystal, the battery price has dropped by 2 / 3 in the past three years. On the one hand, the driving force comes from the rapid decline of the cost of monocrystal silicon chip, on the other hand, the increase of perc technology penetration has greatly improved the battery conversion efficiency. By 2019, the market share of single crystal products has exceeded 65%. Raw materials in the west, application end in the East
In 2019, the production capacity of photovoltaic products in China is widely distributed. The production capacity of upstream polysilicon and silicon wafers is mainly concentrated in the western region with lower electricity price, especially in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Ningxia, Yunnan and other places. The battery chips and components in the middle and lower reaches are mainly concentrated in the eastern region, such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu, which account for more than 60% of the national capacity.
There is still a large development space for solar cells
The scale of solar cell development in China is far smaller than that in the European and American markets, so that the subsidies for solar cells in the European and American markets have begun to decline, while the subsidies in China are still very large. Under the government's subsidy, with the aggravation of industry competition, especially the upgrading of industry technology, small enterprises will not keep up with large-scale enterprises because of technology, which leads to many enterprises being eliminated by the market year by year. Therefore, the overall result is that the concentration of solar cell industry is increasing year by year.
According to the 13th five year plan for solar energy development, by the end of 2020, the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach more than 110 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach more than 105 million kilowatts, maintaining a stable development scale every year on the basis of the 12th Five year plan; the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation will reach 5 million kilowatts. The solar energy heat utilization and heat collection area reaches 800 million square meters. By 2020, the annual utilization of solar energy will reach more than 140 million tons of standard coal. It can be seen that photovoltaic power generation will still be the key development direction of China's power production industry. The expansion of solar energy utilization scale will drive the growth of solar cell demand.
Since the release of the 531 new deal, the price of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain has been reduced by 30% - 40%, and the photovoltaic parity access to the Internet is accelerating. At the same time, due to the demand of downstream photovoltaic enterprises for cost reduction and efficiency improvement of photovoltaic cells, as well as the impact of high-efficiency solar cell technology driving, the battery ushered in a wave of demand. It is predicted that by 2025, the output of solar cells in China will reach 403.67 million kilowatts.
The above data comes from the analysis report on market prospect and investment strategy planning of China's solar cell industry issued by the prospective industry research institute, which also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial planning, industrial declaration, industrial park planning and industrial investment promotion.

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